Joey Votto playing for the Reds in 2014; CC by License 2.0
While trying to think of a topic for this article, one of the greatest players of my generation retired. As I grew up a diehard Cardinals fan, I was raised to hate the Reds. Those early 2010s Reds teams are filled with some of my least favorite baseball players. From Brandon Phillips and Todd Fraizer to Mat Latos and Homer Bailey, that whole team was full of guys I could not stand. However the best player on this team and recently retired future HOF Joey Votto was the only one I liked and rooted for. Then, as I grew up, I began to learn the analytical side of the game and learned quickly how impressive the career of Joey Votto was and became even more of a fan. With Voto’s recent announcement of retirement, it became clear to me that there was no other way to go with this article but a piece on Votto’s career, how dominant it was, and why he IS a future HOF.
The Beginning
Votto was drafted by the Reds as an 18-year-old out of Canada in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft. He started his pro career right away in rookie ball as he posted a .873 OPS with 9 HRs and a 10% BB across 202 PAs after being drafted. From 2003 to 2005 Votto worked his way through the lower ranks of the Reds system as he was putting in his time before he got his chance. During this stretch, he continued to do the one thing he would be known for: hit. He hit 43 HRs with a 14% BB% and consistently posted a BA over .270 and an OPS over .900 across the 1670 PAs in this stretch.
In 2006 he got his first chance in AA and did not disappoint. The now 22-year-old hit .319 with 22 HRs, a .956 OPS and a 13% BB%. In 2007 he got his first shot in AAA and guess what he did? He hit! He posted a .859 OPS with 22 HRs across 580 PAs in AAA which led to Votto getting his first call-up with the Reds at the end of the 2007 season. The 2007 Reds were a bad team winning just 72 games but a 23-year-old Votto gave fans hope for the last month of the season. Votto hit .321 with 4 HRs and 127 OPS+ all while only striking out just 17% of the time. These impressive numbers marked what was the beginning of a HOF career.
The First Prime:
After his quick debut in 2007, Votto became a mainstay at first base for the Reds for years to come. He quickly established himself as one of the best players in baseball. In his first two full seasons (2008-2009) Votto played in 282 games and hit .309 with a 139 wRC+ and 49 HRs and 70 2Bs. This wRC+ ranked 14th in baseball over this stretch as well as 12th in wOBA. Votto placed 2nd in ROY voting in 2008 and 22nd in MVP voting in 2009. Despite being one of the better players in baseball through his first two years he was still waiting for his first all-star and to have a true breakout.
In 2010 he had that breakout season as he hit an absurd .324 with 37 HRs and a 1.024 OPS winning the MVP award. This season marked the first of a 4-year stretch of pure dominance. From 2010 to 2013 Votto made 4 all-star appearances, won the 2010 MVP award, placed top 14 in MVP voting every year, and won a GG in 2011. He hit 104 HRs with a .317 BA, .978 OPS, 18.5% K%, 16.7% BB%, 164 wRC+, and 24.3 fWAR. This ranked him tied for 2nd in wRC+, 15th in BB/K, 21st in HRs, 4th in fWAR, and 1st in OBP. Votto was off to one of the hottest starts in his career as through his age 29 season (2013) he had 159 HRs, .961 OPS, and 34.2 bWAR. This put him on a HOF trajectory but he was not done yet as Votto still had more in the tank after his 30th birthday.
The Second Prime:
Following Votto’s 4 year stretch of dominance, he had an injury-riddled 2014 season where he played in 62 games and had a .799 OPS which while still great was the lowest of his career at that point. Going into 2015 Votto was 31 and coming off an injury-fueled season where he was below his normal level of dominance when he did play. This led to some questions on if the now-veteran Votto was maybe slowing down. However, Votto quickly put the 2014 season behind him by hitting 29 HRs, posting a 1.000 OPS, and placing 3rd in MVP voting. This 2015 season started another dominant 4-year stretch from Votto from 2015 to 2018.
From 2015 to 2018 Votto hit .312 with 106 HRs and 129 2Bs to go along with a 493/439 K/BB, 157 wRC+, and 21.5 fWAR. Votto also racked up 2 more all-star nods and placed top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. During this stretch Votto ranked 10th in games played, 23rd in HRs, 1st in BB%, 1st in BB/K ratio, 3rd in AVG, 1st in OBP, 2nd in wRC+, and 8th in fWAR. This 4-year stretch exemplifies one of Votto’s most famous statistical qualities: his ability to draw walks and avoid strikeouts. In a time where players were increasingly striking out more, Votto kept his approach by walking more then striking out while still hitting 25+ HRs per season. This was the last dominant stretch of Votto’s career but he still had some more quality baseball to be played.
The End of the Historic Career:
2019 marked the beginning of the end for Votto as he put up his first sub-100 wRC+ of his career and his worst BB/K ratio since early in his career. He was still a respectable big leaguer racking up 1.4 WAR in 2019, but it was clear the 35-year-old was on the way out. The COVID-19-shortened 2020 season was much of the same as Votto was still a respectable big leaguer but the best was in the past. However, in 2021, Votto gave us one last season of his true dominance. 2021 Votto was a different animal as he adjusted his swing to get more power while striking out a little more. The now 37-year-old hit 36 HRs which was just his 3rd 35+ homer season of his career and had a .938 OPS while placing 16th in MVP voting. This was unfortunately the last great season we saw from Votto.
In the last two seasons of his career (2022-2023) Votto struggled to be an average big league hitter and stay on the field. He played just 156 games over these two years with 25 HRs and a .712 OPS. However, Votto continued to be a mentor for a young and coming-up Reds team as he helped lead the transition from the old age to the new age. The 40-year-old parted ways with the Reds after the 2023 season and he signed a minor league deal with his hometown Blue Jays but never made back up to the bigs with them before officially announcing his retirement earlier this month. This just leaves us with time to reflect on Votto.
The HOF case for Votto:
This is where it ends for Votto and the conversation that needs to be had. His legacy will always be remembered by the Reds as his number 19 jersey will almost definitely be retired. However, while some think his HOF case is not as open and closed as his Reds legacy, it should be. Votto retired as a 6-time all-star, one-time GG winner, and one-time MVP winner. He rocked a career slash line of .294/.409/.511 with a .920 OPS, 144 OPS+, and 64.5 bWAR. He also racked up 356 HRs, 429 2Bs, and 2135 hits.
When compared to other 1B in the HOF Votto grades out fairly solid. His WAR ranks 14th all-time among 1B with the average of all HOF 1B being 64.8 and his being 64.4. His WAR7 ranks 9th all-time among 1B at 46.9 while the HOF average for 1B is 42.0 (WAR7 takes the best 7 seasons, in terms of bWAR, for a given player). Then next is to dive into the famous JAWS metric which is one of the most famous for judging HOF candices. JAWS is calculated by averaging a player's career WAR with the total WAR from his seven-year peak. Votto ranks 12th all-time among 1B in JAWS with 55.7 and the average at the position is 53.4. While not a clear top 5 player at his position ever, it is clear that Votto meets most statistical criteria it takes to be a HOF 1B. This goes along with Votto also being one of the most beloved players in baseball among fans, media, and other players. All of this together makes it seem like in my opinion that Votto is a slam dunk HOF.
As Joey Votto's career comes to a close, his impact on the game of baseball is unmistakable. Despite my Cardinal fandom, Votto's undeniable talent and consistency have made him a player worth admiring, even from a rival's perspective. His career, highlighted by an MVP award, multiple All-Star selections, and a rare ability to blend power with plate discipline, solidifies his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Votto's contributions extend beyond his impressive statistics; his role as a mentor and leader exemplifies his dedication to the game. His induction into the Hall of Fame seems not just inevitable but deserved.
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