Blake Snell pitching for the San Francisco Giants, CCed by Liscense 2.0
San Francisco’s new left-hander, Blake Snell, is having an outstandingly-strange 2024 MLB season. If you were to ask any Giants fan what they thought of Blake Snell in the months of April through June, the responses would have been full of disappointment. Snell signed a 2 year, $62 million contract in late March of 2024, about as late as you can sign with a team before the regular season starts. In a separate, earlier piece written by yours truly, Snell’s tendencies to start the season poorly were highlighted, proven by his 11.57 ERA in his first 11.2 inning pitched with the Giants. However, like every other year in Snell’s career, Blake was able to turn things around in the second half. But this time around, Snell has seemingly soared to a level he has never pitched before.
The 31-year-old southpaw pitched into the 9th inning for the first time in his career during his first time pitching in Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark. Snell also was able to hold the Reds to zero hits on 114 pitches on August 2nd. Snell’s high ceiling has always been limited by his issue with handing out free passes to hitters. This night against the Reds was not a lot different with three walks by Snell. It did not matter much, as Snell was dominant on another level. His 11 strikeouts were nothing compared to a start that he had five days earlier. On July 27, Snell took the mound against the Colorado Rockies and proceeded to strike out 15 batters in just six innings pitched. His 15 K’s in 6.0 IP was something that had never happened before in MLB history.
Blake Snell has never had an ERA over 3.50 in the second half of any season in his career. This is especially impressive in 2020, as there were only 60 games played in that limited season. So far in 2024, Snell is having his best season by ERA in the second half since 2018. In 33.1 innings, Snell has a 1.35 ERA with 49 strikeouts. Hitters are slashing .110/.192/.193 against Snell. The triple, sub .200 slash line is something not a lot of pitchers can say they have had at any point in their careers. The numbers make sense for how much of a force Snell has been on the mound since the All-Star break. In fact, since July 9, Snell has a 0.55 ERA and 41 strikeouts. But what do the advanced metric percentiles say about Snell’s success?
Snell’s percentiles are great. Perhaps the most impressive of all are his expected stats. He lands in the 97th percentile for expected ERA and the 98th for expected batting average against. Some other notables are his 98th in Whiff%, 95th in strikeout percentage, 98th in Hard-Hit% and 91st in average exit velocity against. Simply put, once Snell was able to get stretched out, he has been among the best pitchers in the game. His expected stats back up his success too, proving that there is close to no luck involved in his stellar output on the mound.
So what does this mean for Blake Snell moving forward? Well, teams are well aware of the anomaly that is first-half Blake Snell. The issue was on full display this year, and many fans theorize that it was the lack of Spring-Training appearances made by the lefty. The Giants tried to get him the work he needed in a few AAA starts, but these were only made when Snell was rehabbing from injury. For the most part, the timing of Snell’s signing combined with the Giants’ decision to throw him right into the fire at the major-league level cost him several awful games and extra losses for the team as a whole. If Snell chooses to exercise his opt-out after this season, the best course of action will be to sign him early and get him a ton of work in the early part of Spring. The fact that he starts seasons the way he does should be even more incentive for teams to ink his contract early in the offseason signing process.
With the Giants deciding not to trade Snell at this year’s deadline, they will ride the high of Snell’s awesome season with their sights set on making the postseason for the first time since 2021. This team and its rotation have a chance to go on a little run in order to claim a Wildcard spot for themselves. Logan Webb, Blake Snell and Robbie Ray are three pitchers that no team would want to face in that three-game Wildcard series. The baseball world saw what happened last year with the Arizona Diamondbacks making the World Series as a Wildcard team, so simply making the playoffs should be the top priority for this SF squad. It's hard to remember a pitcher with the polarizing splits like Blake Snell has between halves of MLB seasons. Thankfully for the Giants, they are right in the playoff race with second-half Snell throwing no hitters, setting strikeout records and making opposing hitters look foolish every five days.
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