After a long and tedious lockout halted the MLB offseason from December 2021 to March 2022, one of the most impactful alterations agreed upon by the two factions was the implementation of a draft lottery among the 18 teams withheld from the playoffs. The intention behind such a dramatic change in the league’s structure was to limit intentional tanking, as the team with the worst record would earn the first overall pick outright prior to the 2022 CBA, causing some blatantly non-competitive seasons from organizations seeking game-changing talents through the draft. Large-scale powerhouse organizations drawing away from competition was an unappealing look for the MLB, especially compared to the other three major sports. Still, the changes have created a more drastic outcome than initially anticipated.
What Differentiates the MLB Draft Lottery from that of the NBA or NHL?
On the surface, creating a more neutral and fair environment for losing teams is viewed as a major positive, especially from an economic perspective. The more competitive a team is, the higher their attendance ratings and viewership numbers become, so incentivizing teams to minimize lengthy rebuilds makes perfect sense on paper, a major reason why athletic conglomerates such as the NBA and NHL have resorted to lotteries of their own. The other lotteries implemented in professional sports are generally well-received amongst their respective fanbases, so what exactly causes the controversy around that of the MLB?
For starters, the lack of a hard salary cap in the MLB completely differentiates baseball from the three other major American sports. From the perspective of a small market organization, it’s essentially impossible to bring in upper-echelon external talent when the big city powerhouses can ultimately bid whatever they see necessary, with very minimal restrictions, making top-end homegrown talents a necessity for any small market team on the brink of a competitive season.
Detrimental to Small Market Teams?
In the situation of a team like the Rockies, slipping down to the fourth overall pick could be detrimental long term, especially with how unappealing Coors Field is for free-agent pitchers. Prep phenom Seth Hernandez, called “the best HS pitching prospect since Hunter Greene,” by PBR’s Azad Earl, looks like the type of organization-altering pitcher that could have completely transformed the Rockies’ entire outlook long term, though since the lottery caused them to slip to pick four, they likely will not have a chance at landing him. Despite being a perennial bottom-of-the-barrel team since their miraculous playoff appearance in 2018, their farm is still relatively bleak outside of deceptive righty Chase Dollander and the recently drafted Golden Spikes winner Charlie Condon. They’ll likely have the opportunity to add a premium talent at pick 4, though missing out on a once-in-a-decade type player like Seth Hernandez is an enormous blow for the Rockies, who consistently lack quality pitching.
Furthermore, a team like the Marlins, just beginning to enter a full-length rebuild, are in a situation where the lack of a true premium player could be an unprecedented blow long term. The old ownership regime essentially destroyed the organization’s reputation amongst the players, with their grievances against the Players’ Union in the lockout, so the free agency appeal is already minimal, and that doesn’t even factor in the market, which is highly untapped and arguably mismanaged in terms of promotion. The Marlins have never brought in a marquee free agent in their 31 offseasons since their 1993 inception, and with the current front office biting the low-spending model revolutionized by the Rays, it doesn’t look like that will change in the coming years. Having the highest odds of securing the first overall pick and falling all the way to pick seven, in a draft with 6 clear premium players, is a brutal consolation for a 100-loss season, especially for a farm system lacking that true face of the franchise.
Is The Lottery Too Harsh on Full-Length Rebuilds?
One of the most impactful restrictions created by the lottery is the fact that large market and revenue-sharing teams cannot pick in the top ten in back-to-back seasons. One of, if not the most oft-discussed topic during this draft lottery cycle is the fact that the White Sox, the statistically worst team in MLB history, are unable to pick any higher than tenth in next season’s draft. Though the White Sox have one of the better farm systems in baseball, missing out on adding another premium player to that pool, especially after breaking the all-time loss record, is devastating to their outlook.
The MLB pushing to limit tanking to optimize marketability is a justified motivation for change on paper, and there’s undeniably some upside to the lottery, but preventing teams in lifeless situations from getting top picks in consecutive seasons will only draw out the rebuilding process even longer. As mentioned earlier, spending in free agency to bring a team to that competitive level is exactly what the league wants, though the aforementioned lack of a salary cap limits rebuilding revenue-sharing teams looking to add true impact talent on the open market, and these restrictions caused by the draft lottery essentially prevent these ‘lifeless’ organizations from adding the amateur talent needed to make a change long-term. Incentivizing teams to shorten rebuilds is a difficult concept to materialize, but the league office attempting to end rebuilding as a whole will do more harm than good for most organizations in the league.
What Are the Benefits?
While there’s a lot to critique in terms of how the lottery negatively impacts rebuilding teams, it’s difficult to deny that the league is getting what they want. The Athletics, for example, are expediting their rebuilding process, with the signing of righty Luis Severino, the acquisition of lefty Jeffery Springs solidifying a viable rotation, and most importantly, extending one of their best players from last year, Brent Rooker.
Similarly, the Angels, although they’ve never illicitly rebuilt, have looked to stay competitive with their highly active free agency. Being a large-market team, Anaheim cannot pick higher than tenth overall next year, prompting the front office to maximize their (bleak) chances of a playoff push going into 2025.
While most small-market organizations will operate differently than what we’ve seen from the A’s this offseason, the lottery does quite the job of incentivizing big-market fringe lottery teams like the Angels to spend and improve. Pushing larger market organizations to spend rather than tank is a concept the lottery’s implementation irrefutably excels at, and considering the league’s operation as a business, maximizing the revenue from larger, more mainstream-appealing organizations makes sense from an economic standpoint, though completely ignoring the smaller-market pieces is something that greatly outweighs the positives created.
Final Thoughts
The lottery has some clear economic benefits, and sheerly from a business perspective, it provides more positives than negatives for the league financially. Prompting the league’s economic superpowers to spend, as opposed to rebuilding, is something few would disagree with. The issues with the lottery fall into how small-market organizations are mismanaged and essentially written off. With free agency essentially a nonfactor for these teams, and the lottery taking away any basis of security for talent addition, it’s a more difficult landscape than ever to grow a winner internally as we’ve seen in the past. The baseball fanbase should be in full support of the league pushing powerhouse organizations to compete but not at the expense of the small market.
Comments