Vladmir Guerrero Jr playing for the Toronto Blue Jays; CC by License 2.0
The day was Sunday, August 22nd, 2021. The Toronto Blue Jays were leading the Detroit Tigers by a score of 2-1 in the top of the 9th inning. There were two outs, and a routine ground ball was hit to second baseman Marcus Semien. And the throw was simply booted, subsequently leading the Tigers to a 9th-inning comeback and an eventual 5-3 win in 11 innings.
The blown lead in late innings is a common occurrence in the sport of baseball, and while Semien was the one who made the costly error, the blame was not solely on him. Teams win and lose together as an entity. However, this game in particular brings pain to Blue Jays fans that is much larger than just your average loss.
The 2021 Toronto Blue Jays looked like an absolute wagon and a team that opponents would have been extremely fearful of if they were lucky enough to make it to the postseason. A lineup stacked with sluggers like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, George Springer, Bo Bichette, and a prime Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A pitching rotation compiled of a recently-acquired Jose Berrios, a future Cy Young winner in Robbie Ray, a returned-to-form Steven Matz, and a young, budding ace (or at least we thought) in Alek Manoah. However, that infamous loss against Detroit is often looked back on as the reason the 2021 Blue Jays missed the postseason, as they were eliminated on the last day of the regular season, just one game shy of a wild card berth.
On an even darker note, the 2021 Blue Jays felt like the last time the team was truly feared. Sure, the odd “World Series favorite” pick was given to the team in subsequent years; but with every following season, the regression of what was supposed to become a dynasty has grown larger and larger, leading to the lackluster on-field product this season.
As of the writing of this article, the Jays are sitting in last place in the AL East, and are significantly out of the wild card conversation. The front office acted accordingly at the deadline, selling off appropriate pieces, but the question lies, how did we get here? How did a team with such high hopes fall flat on their face only a few years later?
It starts with the offense. Since seemingly the beginning of 2023, the pop and danger the Jays offense carried simply vanished into thin air. In 2022, the team finished 7th in HRs, 3rd in RBIs, 4th in Runs Scored, and 1st(!) in hits. In 2023, they finished just slightly below average in all of those categories. Many would point to the new contact-oriented approach implemented by their new offensive hire Don Mattingly for that downgrade. Luckily, the pitching staff performed otherworldly, and single-handedly dragged this team to the playoffs, only to have that same offensive weakness be their downfall, as they were outscored 5-1 in two wild card games against the Twins.
This season, it has gotten so much worse. The Jays rank 26th in HRs, 23rd in RBIs, 18th in Hits, and 22nd in runs scored. Not great to say the least. The blame for these struggles is aimed every which way, whether it be management, coaching, or the players themselves.
Many would point to General Manager Ross Atkins, as he was the individual behind the trades of key offensive hitters like Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, as well as the team’s #1 prospect at the time, catcher Gabriel Moreno, in an effort to find players more focused on defensive and contact ability. Granted, in theory, the acquisitions of these trades worked out in the eyes of management in 2023, as Erik Swanson solidified a large 2022 weakness in the bullpen and Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier played remarkable defense in the outfield; a masterful upgrade for what Gurriel and Hernandez had provided. The problem? None of those acquisitions hit well, if even average in that season. Kiermaier was shockingly serviceable, as he hit at a .741 OPS, 32 points higher than his career average. However, to put that in perspective, Kiermaier had the 5th best OPS on the entire team, only behind Bichette, Guerrero, Matt Chapman (whom all had below-average years by their standards), and Brandon Belt (who currently does not have an MLB contract). This was a higher OPS than $125M outfielder George Springer put up in 2023, to put things in a terrifying perspective.
Meanwhile, all three of Hernandez, Gurriel, and Moreno proceeded to have an OPS of equal, if not higher, value than Kiermaier’s. All were key contributors that could help a slumping offense, and to make matters worse, Gurriel and Moreno got to profile their success on a grand stage as the Diamondbacks made an improbable run to the World Series.
One could forgive Atkins for these mistakes, as no one could see such a significant decrease in offensive production from 2022 to 2023 coming. The remaining core of Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer was not as dominant power-wise in 2022 as they were in 2021, but logically, it was rather unreasonable to expect a mere 23-year-old Guerrero to consistently be a 1.000 OPS player, despite how talented he showed he can be. Bichette could be relied upon to be money in the bank for a .290 average and 20 HRs, and Springer's slow decline was to be expected as he got older. However, having both Springer's and Guerrero’s respective OPS drop by at least 175 points each was not planned for, and yet, they wouldn’t be the first players to struggle in comparison to their career bests, and they won’t be the last either. Things will fix itself up next year, right?
Wrong. 2024 proved that these offensive struggles weren’t a mere blip on the radar. Bichette has had an absolute nightmare season. After three straight seasons of hitting at least .290, 20 HRs, and 135 games played, Bichette has had three separate Injured List stints this year alone, only logging 4 HRs to a .223 average in only 79 games played. To put that in perspective, after accruing a combined 14.4 WAR from 2021-2023, Bichette has posted a -0.2 WAR in this season. Never mind the off-the-field conversations about him being open to a trade out of Toronto because I cannot imagine anyone who could use a fresh start of a season more than Bo Bichette.
George Springer would be a close second though. At the time of this article, Springer is slashing .228/.311/.382 on the season, and this was miles better of a result than what the first part of his season suggested. Before June 25th, Springer was hitting a poultry .188/.278/.281 on the year. When Springer was originally signed in 2021, the Blue Jays were always prepared to see some regression from him in his older age. I doubt they expected the shell of a player he was, and luckily he has turned it around as well as he has.
The cherry on top is that Atkins had a way to prepare for this. Options like Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Teoscar Hernandez were available deep into the offseason, but Atkins opted for more contact-oriented bats in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner. Not to say those signings were complete failures by any stretch of the imagination, but for a Jays team that was looking at Shohei Ohtani, combined with seeing how Pederson and Hernandez are performing in their respective teams, Jays fans have completely valid reasoning to be disappointed.
Another key reason for the disappointing season has been the bullpen, or even the pitching as a whole. The Jays’ bullpen has the 2nd worst bullpen ERA at 5.03, only trailing the Rockies. This is a worse rating than the 2021 bullpen which had a 4.08 ERA, and most Jays fans blame that bullpen for costing them the playoff spot in that year. Prime acquisition Erik Swanson was at one point demoted to Triple-A this season. Key lefty Tim Mayza struggled his way to a DFA. Closer Jordan Romano has been injured for the majority of the season. Options to patch up the holes can barely get through an inning to a point where getting a position player would be a more productive option. The most productive arms like Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards (at times), and Nate Pearson were promptly shipped out at the deadline. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi (despite what his trade haul brought in) are all having down seasons in comparison to 2023, and replacements like Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, and Yariel Rodriguez have not found permanent spots as replacements, whether it be due to injury, inconsistency, or both. The pitching has felt like a revolving door all season, and there is no sight of it stopping until September ends.
So where do the Blue Jays go from here? Management has been quoted saying that they want to compete in 2025, and with the moves they made at the deadline, it feels like that is a realistic possibility. The prospects that they picked up are closer to the major league level than what you would see in your usual sell-off, and the trades of certain pieces will allow some younger players to get some valuable experience and playing time. If all goes well, there are brighter days ahead in Toronto, but they will most likely have to wait until next season for those days to take place.
A lesson to take from this is, if Shohei doesn't want you, there's a reason