Chase Burns of Wake Forest, CC'ed by Liscense 2.0
The 2024 MLB draft class is projected to be one of the best classes in a long time at the top with the hitters like Bazzana, Condon, Wetherholt, and Caglianone being the biggest names. These guys are special and dominant, and we are going to break them down later this week. However, today we are going to dive into the pitchers of this class. They are headlined by big names like Hagen Smith and Chase Burns as well as fellow big college arms like Brody Becht, Trey Yesavge, and Jonathan Santucci. They are joined by big time prep arms Cam Caminiti, William Schmidt, and Kash Mayfield. This class has a lot of fun and promising pitchers overall and today we are diving into the top 15 as decided by our two draft focused authors Milan Prevendar and Perry Nadreau.
Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas, 6’3” 225lbs
Smith cemented himself as the top arm in this class with a dominant campaign for the Razorbacks. Perhaps his top highlight was a 6 inning, 17 strikeout performance against Oregon State, one of the top lineups in the nation. The NCAA Pitcher of the Year will live and die by his fastball and slider, both incredibly impressive pitches. The fastball will sit in the 94-97 range and will occasionally touch triple digits. While the velocity is already impressive, his fastball plays up considerably as it is delivered from a low ¾ slot with a significant amount of crossfire. The delivery has some similarities to Chris Sale with a ton of deception. Smith’s fastball plays best up in the zone and generates a ton of whiffs. The pitch grades out about as well as a fastball can with a 124 stuff plus, showing it’s elite ability to fool hitters. However, Smith’s slider might be an even more impressive pitch. Despite not only breaking 5.2 inches on average, the deceptive delivery and crossfire action makes the pitch devastating for opposing hitters. In the 2024 season, Hagen’s slider generated whiffs and called strikes at an incredible 48% clip. When hitters managed to make contact with the pitch, it resulted in a ground ball 56% of the time. Watching him pitch, it’s clear that he is comfortable leaning on the slider in any count and throwing it to any part of the plate. Smith’s third offering is a splitter, which he uses sparingly, but tunnels very well with his fastball. He’s never going to use it often, but it appears to be a weapon he will be able to use as he’s asked to face a lineup three times through. There are always questions that come up about both injury risk and command when a pitcher has a delivery as funky as Smith’s, but for the most part he has proved that neither one of these things outweigh his track record of success. He is 6 years removed from Tommy John surgery and while he’s had command struggles at points, he’s usually been able to return to success very quickly. While typically scouts are weary of starters with a small arsenal, Smith’s pitches are impressive enough to limit any major concern. Smith is a candidate to follow the Paul Skenes developmental route as he essentially has a big league arsenal and is pretty much physically maxed out, leading me to believe he’ll be a major league mainstay by the 2025 all-star break.
Chase Burns, Wake Forest, 6’3” 200lbs
Burns has been one of the premier pitching prospects in the country all year. He entered the collegiate ranks at Tennessee, where he came in with a ton of prestige after running it up to 100mph as a prep player. He may not have had a ton of great success at Tennessee, where he was moved to the bullpen in his sophomore campaign, but before this past season, he entered the transfer portal and joined Wake Forest and their infamous pitching lab. This past year in Winston-Salem, Burns showcased perhaps the best stuff in the class. To start, the fastball was an absolutely elite pitch. With it, he averaged 97.8mph with over 20 IVB. It’s expected that the metrics on the pitch will decline a bit as he enters pro ball, but the elite velocity and plus carry should still allow the pitch to be a beneficial part of the arsenal. He had a 38.46 CSW% (called strikes + whiff percentage), which would be above MLB average. My only concern with the pitch is that it had induced a fly ball a third of the time it was put into play. This is likely to be exploited a bit more at the professional level as Burns begins to face more advanced hitters consistently, but again, I’m confident that the pitch will continue to be above-average. Off of the fastball, Burns employed a slider as his primary secondary offering, and it’s a doozy. The pitch averaged 87.6mph with -.5 IVB and 8 inches of sweep, showing an impressive 2-plane break that was a nightmare for opposing hitters. It grades out at 109 on Stuff+ models, placing it firmly above league average. Hitters’ reactions to the pitch confirmed this, as he caught an absurd 52.27 CSW%. The slider will more than likely increase in usage as he transitions to pro ball, and I fully expect it to continue to perform at a high level. He also used a curveball as a tertiary offering, throwing it at 82.3mph with -7 IVB and 8 inches of movement to the gloveside. The pitch also graded out well in Stuff+ models with a grade of 110. Batters only made contact 15.15% of the time against it, and it racked up an impressive 46.78 CSW%. Finally, Burns went to a changeup as his 4th pitch, which was more of a speed change pitch to mix in than an out pitch. He threw it at 90mph with 10 IVB and 13 inches of armside movement. If he can kill some of the vertical break on the pitch, it could solidify itself as a promising 4th pitch. He appears to have some supination bias, which could lead itself to a SSW sinker as he enters pro ball, which could replace the changeup. I’m interested to see what the professional organization that drafts him decides to do with his development, but the arm talent is certainly special here. Expect Burns to make quick work of the minor leagues and be elevated to the big league squad in a short amount of time.
Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa, 6’4” 235lbs
I’m not sure it’s possible to find a pitcher who embodies modern pitching trends more than Brody Brecht. He has a high octane arsenal and is a pure power pitcher that has problems with control. Standing at 6’4 and 235 pounds, the former Iowa football player is an imposing figure on the mound. His fastball averaged 96.4 miles an hour on the season, but in most games he came out firing 99-101 in the first couple of innings. Despite the elite velocity on his fastball and almost 8 inches of armside run, Brecht’s fastball didn’t bring him as much success as most scouts would’ve expected. He ran into issues with command all season and struggled to throw the fastball any time he was behind in the count. This led to him relying heavily on his slider which at 88-90 mph has the ability to wreak havoc on hitters. Once again, there are concerns about the control with this pitch, although it’s slightly more reliable than the fastball. Brecht’s upside is tremendous and high enough to warrant a first round selection despite the obvious concerns. There are organizations that will be scared away, but if the right organization acquires him, he has the potential to be dangerous. As with any two pitch guy with shaky control, there is a very good chance that Brecht ends up a reliever. I think that even in that scenario he will still be a valuable major league asset, however the hope for whatever club drafts him is that he ends up developing better control and perhaps a new third offering throughout the minor leagues. If he can do that he should eventually be able to become a guy with a frontline starter upside. He will be one of the bigger wildcard selections in the draft and I look forward to seeing how his career unfolds.
Trey Yesavage, ECU, 6’4” 225lbs
Trey Yesavage burst onto the scene in 2023, when he went 7-1 with 105 strikeouts across 76 innings. He followed his 2023 campaign with a dominant 2024 where he went 11-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 93.1 innings pitched. With this, he’s launched himself firmly into the first-round and has positioned himself as one of the best collegiate pitchers in this year’s draft class. He boasts an impressive arsenal, with 3 pitches that grade out above league average according to Stuff+. To start, his fastball averages 94 mph and 22.7 IVB. The elite carry allowed him to hold a solid 34.53 CSW% against opposing hitters. The pitch graded out at 110 Stuff+, but as said with Burns, the metrics will more than likely decrease a bit as he makes the transition to pro ball, though it should still feature above-average carry. However, my concern with the pitch is the below-average extension that he gets. This will have the fastball perform down a tick and also creates a more typical vertical approach angle even despite the elite carry that he’s able to produce. Off of the fastball, Yesavage mixes in a cutter, though it is more like a gyro slider. He throws the pitch at 85.4mph, and it has 2.9 IVB and 2.2 HZB. The pitch creates a fairly steep vertical approach angle at -8.85, which helped him collect a 43.69 CSW%. This helped the pitch grade out at a stellar 119 Stuff+, and I fully expect the pitch to continue to perform as an above-average pitch in pro ball. Finally, Yesavage mixes in a splitter which he throws at 83mph. He kills spin on the pitch, throwing it with an average of 1485rpm, and it features 5.5 IVB and 10 inches of run to the armside. He showed good feel for the pitch and used it as an out pitch throughout the season for ECU. The 3 pitch mix and advanced command should be enough for Yesavage to continue to hold a role as a starting pitcher at the next level. Look for him to potentially up his curveball usage in pro ball. He used it sparingly this year, but it flashed solid depth, and he threw it at 81.5mph, which should be hard enough for it to be competitive. Overall, Yesavage has all the makings of a solid middle of the order starter in the big leagues, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he is up in the show in a year or two.
Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (AZ), LSU Commit, 6’2” 195lbs
One of the most well known players in the class, partially for his big league bloodline, Caminiti has been lighting up the radar guns and posting video game numbers for the last three years. He has absolutely dominated on the mound for Saguaro high school and has also been one of the best hitters in the state. He’s a freak athlete who has incredible body control and repeats his delivery incredibly well for a high school pitcher. Caminiti was originally supposed to be one of the headliners of the 2025 draft class but decided to reclassify up a year, essentially guaranteeing he would forgo his commitment to LSU. There’s a lot to like from the 17 year old as his fastball is one of the better pitches in the draft. He sits in the 93-95 range but can run it up to 98 and flashes armside run that makes an at bat incredibly difficult for left handed hitters. He’s shown the ability to pitch inside successfully with the fastball, opening up the outside corner to put away hitters with the offspeed. Caminiti has both a slider and curveball in his arsenal and while neither one is an elite pitch yet, they both show the promise to eventually become plus offerings. Caminiti’s high ¾ armslot creates some deception that allows both the breaking balls to play up from their relatively average pitch shape. He has been able to control all of his offerings and has had very few struggles with walks. The upside is tremendous but Caminiti will likely have a longer path ahead to develop, given that the stuff is somewhat raw and he’s only 17 years old. The team that drafts him will look to make the curveball sharper as it has the tendency to get loopy. A team will surely bite on Caminiti’s upside early, he should be the favorite to be the first prep arm off the board.
William Schmidt, Prep (LSU recruit), 6’4” 190lbs
Schmidt is one of the more intriguing prep pitchers available in this year’s draft, and may have one of the higher ceilings in the class. This past HS season, he was absolutely dominant, finishing 10-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 102 strikeouts. The frame is extremely lanky and uber-projectable, with long legs and tons of room to still fill out. He works from a fairly over the top arm slot, and he brings it through with some real arm speed at present. It’s currently mostly a two-pitch mix, with a burgeoning changeup that could be developed into a quality tertiary pitch. At present, he works with a fastball and curveball, creating a deadly North/South attack. The fastball comfortably sits in the mid 90’s, though he has ran it up to 99mph before. The pitch can get above 20 IVB, causing some real issues for hitters and inducing a good bit of swing and miss. In a limited sample size at USA baseball last summer, he was able to induce 8 whiffs on the fastball. It projects to continue to miss bats at the professional level, though he may have to stay more away from the top of the zone as the VAA is fairly typical and could be hit hard in the air, resulting in more damage than he allowed in his prep career. Off of the fastball, Schmidt features a hammer curveball that he throws in the 82-85 range consistently with near 3000rpm. The pitch features sharp downward action and tight spin. It should continue to be a plus offering for him at the next level. He will need to add a consistent third and maybe even 4th pitch to work the plate a bit more East/West once he enters pro ball, but the arm talent, frame, and 2 plus pitches at present should be enough for a team to pull the trigger on him and pay him enough to get him away from LSU.
Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke, 6’2” 225lbs
Unlike Smith, Burns, and Brecht, Santucci presents more of a typical major league starter profile. The stuff isn’t electric but he’s very solid and a consistent performer, a very valuable skill set for longtime middle of the rotation pitchers. The team selecting Santucci isn’t hoping that he becomes a Cy Young candidate, they’re betting that they are getting a guy who can be an anchor in their rotation and be a solid number 3 guy for years. Santucci’s fastball will sit around 94 mph and remains there for pretty much the entirety of all of his outings. The pitch has an impressive 13 inches of armside run and while he only has a 29% CSW on the offering, the movement causes it to miss barrels and generate weak contact. He delivers from a pretty traditional arm slot with a fairly simple and repeatable delivery. The vertical approach angle is less than 1 which makes it difficult for hitters to get on plane with. Because of this, Santucci’s fastball grades out at 116 on stuff plus, proving it is an elite level pitch. I find the slider more impressive than most and truly believe it’s already a 60 grade offering with the potential to become even more dangerous. He throws it primarily while ahead in the count and hitters struggle, making contact with the pitch at only a 27.5% rate. He generates both vertical and horizontal breaks causing hitters to often swing over the top of the pitch or chase it off the outside corner. His changeup is a very serviceable third offering, especially to neutralize right handed hitters. Santucci’s armside run on the changeup mirrors that of his fastball, but it's fading action allows 80% of contact on the changeup to result in ground balls. I draw comparisons to fellow southpaws Jordan Wicks and Cooper Hjerpe who have been first round selections in recent years. None of the three are going to light up the radar gun or flash 80 grade stuff, but all three have the potential to be very valuable major leaguers.
Kash Mayfield, Prep (Oklahoma St Recruit), 6’3” 194lbs
Mayfield is a LHP that oozes projection. He has a decent amount of strength in the frame presently with room to fill out still. On the mound, he has an ultra-easy delivery with slight crossbody action which adds some deception. He throws from a high ¾ slot with some arm speed. It’s an intriguing 3-pitch mix at present that projects to keep improving as he progresses to the next level, whether that be with a professional organization or at Oklahoma State. To start, he throws the fastball in the low to mid 90’s, topping out at 94mph. The pitch jumps out of the hand, and he shows good feel to locate it, especially when thrown at the top of the zone. Off of the fastball, he mixes in a slider that he throws comfortably in the upper 70’s currently. The pitch has a decent bit of sweep to it, and it features tight, late break that can cause some uncomfortable swings. Finally, Mayfield has a changeup, which he throws between 78-81mph. It has good fading life, and he shows an advanced feel for the pitch. The entire arsenal projects to be thrown harder as he fills out and advances to the next level. At present, it’s 3 quality pitches that should allow him to remain a starting pitcher, and he projects to be a middle of the rotation arm in the big leagues if he develops accordingly. However, he is already 19.4 years of age, which could hurt his draft stock a bit as teams prefer younger prep players.
Ryan Sloan, RHP, York (IL), Wake Forest Commit, 6’5” 220lbs
Sloan is more physically advanced than most high schoolers and offers a very intriguing mix of high upside and a relatively high floor for the usually risky demographic of high school pitchers. The Illinois prep product and Wake Forest recruit has a typical pitcher's build at 6’5 and 220 pounds and has dominated on both the prep circuit and in high school ball, leading him to be named the Gatorade Illinois Player of the Year. Unlike most prep arms, Sloan has the rare ability to consistently locate all three of his offerings. I looked back through all of his starts for the last calendar year and he is one of very few prep pitchers in recent memory that doesn’t have a single start in which he had completely imploded. He keeps good tempo on the mound and consistently challenges hitters. The fastball can get up to 99 but sits in the 94-96 range, but I think there might be a little more in the tank there. He has multiple different shapes and uses more of a cut fastball against lefties while using a traditional running four seam against righties. The slider is used mostly in 2 strike situations but has some depth and generates swings and misses. He gets on top of the ball really effectively, giving him some tilt and making it more difficult for hitters to get on plane with all of his pitches. Sloan’s changeup is his best offspeed pitch, evidenced by the fact that he is comfortable using it against all hitters in all counts. His arm action on the change is identical to the fastball which gives him the ability to create really uncomfortable at bats for hitters. While I typically don’t think judging a pitcher's demeanor on the mound is an effective method of scouting, Sloan just looks incredibly comfortable in every situation. He rarely strays from his quick tempo and rarely loses a feel for his fastball or changeup. This is a really high upside guy who I’m confident will be an impact player in the major leagues.
Ryan Johnson, Dallas Baptist University, 6’6” 215lb
Johnson is one of the more intriguing RHP’s in the collegiate class this year, and one of my personal favorites. Hailing from Dallas Baptist University, Johnson has recorded an extremely successful career and now finds himself ready to take the leap into professional baseball. His windup is… unique. He lifts his glove over his head fairly methodically before rushing out of it, turning, and delivering the pitch from a low ¾ arm slot. The delivery reminds me of Atlanta Braves’ pitcher Jimmy Herget, who has been dubbed by the infamous Pitching Ninja as “The Human Glitch”. Johnson, on top of the unique delivery, features an impressive arsenal. He throws the slider as his primary pitch, and it’s understandable as to why. He throws it, on average, at 80mph with 6 IVB and 15 inches of sweep to the gloveside. The combination of upward tilt from a lower slot baffled hitters, resulting in a 49.59 CSW%. Even when it was put into play, he was able to limit damage as only 8% of the balls put in play off of the slider were hit in the air. It will continue to be his primary pitch as he progresses into pro ball, and the uniqueness of the pitch and the delivery should continue to bring him success. Off of the slider, he throws a sinker that averages 94mph with 4.9 IVB and 12.6 inches of run to the armside. The pitch was able to generate a 42 CSW%, as well as a 61% ground ball rate. Finally, he throws a fastball sparingly at 93.2mph with 10.4 IVB and 5.2 inches of run to the arm-side. The pitch induces ground balls at a 42% clip. Johnson has the ability to get outs in a lot of different ways. He was effective with the strikeout and was able to induce swings and misses against his sinker and slider, but even when it was put into play, he was able to limit damage most of the time by forcing hitters to hit the ball on the ground. Having the ability to get batters out in numerous ways should allow Johnson to have an effective career as a starting pitcher.
Dasan Hill, LHP, Grapevine (TX), Dallas Baptist Commit, 6’5” 165lbs
Hill has been one of the biggest risers throughout this draft cycle, leading his high school, Grapevine High, to a Texas 5A state championship. Early in the cycle, he was known as a guy who had potential but all signs pointed to him heading to Dallas Baptist to continue to develop before getting a professional opportunity. The 6’5” righty has run his fastball up to 97 at multiple points throughout the spring but will settle in at the 93-94 range. Hill will lean primarily on his fastball/slider combo but flashes a curveball with 11-5 movement, primarily as a get me over pitch. The DBU commit has shown the ability to control his fastball and beat hitters up in the zone with the high velocity and armside run. His slider has solid depth at 80-82 mph and induces a lot of whiffs. He’s shown the ability to use the slider in all counts and often leans on it in starts where his fastball command isn’t as strong. The changeup is a work in progress but has looked solid in limited usage. Perhaps the most enticing part of Hill’s profile is his projectability as he currently weighs in at 165 pounds. As he adds muscle to his frame, the fastball will likely sit in the upper 90’s as his secondaries become sharper. He didn’t miss a start throughout the entirety of the high school season and has looked to be fairly durable throughout the last couple of years. There is always risk in the prep lefty demographic but Hill’s upside is high enough to warrant a selection in the late first or early second round.
Chris Levonas, Prep (Wake Forest recruit), 6’2” 175lbs
Levonas, a Wake Forest recruit, reminds me a bit of fellow Demon Deacon Chase Burns. It’s an explosive, uptempo delivery with a massive leg kick that he thrusts down into the ground to help him generate force throughout the delivery. He throws from a high ¾ arm slot with a clean arm action that has some speed to it presently. A cold-weather arm from New Jersey, Levonas really burst onto the scene in 2024, and it’s easy to see why. He has a high-octane fastball, 2 sharp breaking balls, and a solid changeup. To start with the fastball, he throws it in the 94-97 range, topping out at 98. There’s some real jump out of the hand with it, and it has solid cut/ride action. It seems as if he has some supination bias, which can lead to inconsistent fastball shapes, but when he stays behind it, it shows some real life to the top of the zone. The slider and curveball can overlap at times, as they’re both thrown in the 80-82mph range, but both feature spin rates at or over 3000rpms with sharp life. The slider shows promising sweep to the gloveside, while the curveball adds a bit more depth to the arsenal. I would imagine that he will make an effort to really differentiate between the two as he progresses to the next level, but both show flashes of a plus breaking ball. The changeup is a firm one, thrown at 88-90 with tumbling life to the armside. It’s a quality pitch at present, and will continue to be a weapon for him to open up the armside of the plate more effectively. There’s still a lot of projection left here to improve command and pitchability, though this should come as he gets more innings under his belt. He has the upside of a top-end starter, and I’m very intrigued to follow his development as he enters pro ball or enrolls at Wake Forest.
Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama, 6’5” 255lbs
In a draft class filled with pitchers who are also plus athletes, Hess most definitely breaks the mold. Coming in at 6’5, 255, Hess’ stocky build differentiates him from many of the others in this class. Scouts often throw out the term workhorse to describe someone like this. Hess faced quite a bit of adversity throughout the year and struggled mightily at points, but pushed through to give his team quality innings. He has faced injuries in the past but I project him to be one of the more durable arms available this year. His arm action is very clean and very simple which should make him less susceptible to common injuries. Hess is one of the rare college pitchers that has a four pitch mix and relies heavily on all four pitches. The fastball comes in at 117 on Stuff+ and will consistently sit right in the 93-95 range. He has about 13 inches of armside run and a steep vertical approach angle at almost 5. While he does have an impressive 34.7 CSW%, hitters who make contact hit the ball in the air at a slightly concerning 40% rate. Despite this, the pitch still grades out well overall, especially when he is able to locate it. His curveball is probably his second best offering and is much better than just a get me over pitch. Its spin rate is about 2650 on average but will regularly touch 2800. The break on the pitch is sharp with 2-8 movement making it valuable in both get me over and swing and miss situations. I would expect major league teams to have him lean on this pitch more as it generated a 43 CSW% last season. Hess also regularly mixes in a slider at about 85 mph with tighter movement that generates ground balls at a strong 43% rate. His changeup is his least used pitch but has 15.3 inches of armside run causing it to be a useful offering against left handed opponents. All of the trouble that Hess ran into this year was a result of bad command, something that he hadn’t really struggled with until this season. If he can improve in that department, he’ll likely be a back end rotation option in a few years.
Jurrangelo Cijntje, Miss State, 5’11” 200lbs
Cijntje made a name for himself in high school as one of the best switch-handed pitchers we have ever seen. The legend has only grown during his time at Mississippi State, where he’s had success as both a righty and a lefty. However, he may be forced to stick to the right side during his professional career, as the stuff is a few ticks better than it is from the left side. He throws his fastball on average at 95mph with 18.5 IVB. The plus carry, combined with the lower arm slot, allows his fastball to come in with a fairly flat -4.4 vertical approach angle. This causes hitters to miss underneath and should allow the pitch to remain an above-average pitch at the next level. He’ll have to locate the fastball more consistently to the top of the zone to reap the benefits of the flat VAA, as he only threw less than a quarter of his fastballs to the upper third this year. If he can do that, the pitch should perform well, even against professional hitters. Off of the fastball, he mixed in a quality slider which he threw at 84.2mph on average with 1.8 IVB and 4 inches of sweep to the gloveside. It’s a tight, late breaker that was successful this year, as it racked up a solid 36.65 CSW%. The two pitches by themselves both should be above-average at the next level, and the slider has shown plus flashes throughout the season. However, if he wants to remain a starting pitcher, he’ll have to develop his changeup which he used sparsely throughout his 2024 campaign. He throws it at 87 with 9.4 IVB and almost 16 inches of armside movement. If he can develop the changeup and get a better feel for it, it should be a solid tertiary offering. I would imagine that whoever decides to draft him will give him every opportunity to make it work as a starting pitcher purely from the right side, but the addition of a third pitch will be critical to that working.
Levi Sterling, Prep (Texas recruit), 6’5” 200lbs
Sterling has some of the most advanced pitchability in the prep class, despite him still being 17 and 10 months old. His age should certainly improve his draft stock, but it is most certainly not the only thing he has going for him. Sterling has kept his two-way career alive throughout high school, but his future is almost certainly on the mound. He features 3 quality pitches with really advanced command. He shows extremely athletic actions on the mound, where he throws from a true ¾ arm slot with some whip and arm speed present. The fastball sits in the low 90’s, though he has been up to 95. He certainly projects to continue throwing harder, as he still has plenty of room to fill out into his wiry frame. He has the ability to locate the fastball to all parts of the zone, though it is especially effective when thrown to the top, where the VAA gets a bit flatter due to the lower arm slot, and he’s able to induce some swing and miss. Off of the fastball, he works in a quality changeup with tumbling life to the arm-side in the 83-84mph range. Again, he shows really advanced command of it and is able to mix it in at will to either right or left-handed hitters. His third pitch is a sharp, tight slider at 82. It has late life to it, and hitters really struggled to find a barrel against it throughout his prep career. Overall, it’s a really advanced arsenal with plus command and great feel to pitch. He projects to continue to throw harder, and the command and stuff should allow him to continue being a starting pitcher at the next level.
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