Juan Soto at his first press conference as a New York Met, CCed by Liscense 2.0
Major League Baseball is deep into its long offseason in 2024. Outside of the Winter Meetings, there is not a set schedule or deadline for when huge moves will be made by teams. It leaves a lot of time to wait around and let certain markets for free agents mature. It has been no different in this year’s offseason. The obvious exception was the mega-contract signed by Juan Soto for 15 years, $785 million. Today, let’s go over this move and see what the signing says about the future of the New York Mets.
Juan Soto NYM $765M/15 YRS
The biggest move since Ohtani’s signing last year was Juan Soto signing with the New York Mets. While it was rumored that teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays were in the mix to sign the 26-year old, it never really felt like it could be anyone but the Yankees or Mets. At the end of the sweepstakes, the Mets walked away victorious, sticking it to their crosstown rivals in the Bronx. Mets owner Steve Cohen was simply never going to be outbid during this process, flexing his deep pockets with this contract. In fact, this contract is the largest in sports history. If it was going to be anyone to sign this type of contract, it would be the Mets’ savior Steve Cohen.
One big criticism of this signing was that it was simply an overpay for one player, even if it is Juan Soto. Baseball casuals will look at his career batting average and be confused on how a .285 hitter just signed the biggest contract ever. Committing $785 million is more than enough to buy multiple superstars, not just one. In my opinion, Juan Soto was always going to sign a deal like this. Owners knew this was what it was going to take to land a player of this caliber at his young age. Similar to Ohtani, the value of having Juan Soto on your baseball team is far beyond what he literally produces as a player. The amount of season tickets, single game tickets and merchandise will be more than enough through the life of his contract to offset the heavy payroll hit. Plus, Steve Cohen simply doesn’t care. He has money to burn and nothing will stop him from having the best product possible on the baseball diamond.
Still, why sign Soto? Looking at his deeper, advanced metrics help paint a better picture of the kind of player he is. Before this, though, his counting stats from 2024 were just as impressive. The lefty slugger clubbed 41 home runs and slashed .288/.419/569 good for a .988 OPS. The on-base percentage sitting at .419 should tell you all you need to know. Soto gets on base at an elite level. This is backed up by his walk percentage percentile ranking being in the 100th. He also strikes out rarely, which isn’t always common with high walk-rate guys. He ranks in the 79th percentile only striking out 16.7% of the time.
While Soto is certainly getting paid for what he does when he doesn’t swing the bat, his pure offensive numbers are other-worldly as well. His success is anything but lucky, too, as his expected stats are off the charts. He ranks in the 100th percentile for expected wOBA (weighted on base average) and expected batting average. With this xBA stat, the numbers say he should have recorded a .316 batting average in 2024 compared to his .285. This suggests that Soto was somehow getting a little unlucky with his batting average numbers. This fact is consistent with his expected slugging numbers too, as his xSLG was .646 compared to his actual SLG at .569.
What is most impressive about Soto to me is his ability to barrel up the baseball seemingly whenever he wants. Because he is such a patient hitter, one would expect his exit velocity readings to not be elite all the time. This is not the case, as Soto ranks in the 98th percentile for average exit velocity, 99th in both Barrel % and Hard-Hit %, and 94th in Squared-Up %. In Baseball Savant’s ‘Bat Speed’ category, Soto is again elite, finding himself in the 94th percentile. All of these impressive percentile rankings are incredible to see out of just one player. It is not a surprise that Savant has his Batting Run Value in the 100th percentile. It is hard to find any negatives on Soto when it comes to his abilities at the plate. On the other side of the ball, however, it is not anywhere close to the type of production he has as a hitter.
Soto has negative values in the baserunning (-3) and field run (-1) categories on his Savant page. This certainly stains his otherwise perfect percentiles. For fielding, his run value ranks in the 38th percentile and his range (or Outs Above Average) sits in the 14th percentile. Another very fair criticism of his signing is that Steve Cohen just dished the largest contract in history for a player who will be a DH for the majority of his career. Soto hasn’t done anything in the field to disprove this fate, but perhaps 2025 will be the start of Juan Soto’s Gold Glove award journey. His baserunning value ranks in the 10th percentile, too. It is not helpful that Soto is a slow runner (36th percentile), but this is a glaring negative to Soto’s abilities as an athlete.
All of the criticism from the Juan Soto signing would be silenced with a Mets World Series win in 2025. It appears as if this team is poised to make this happen after making the NLCS last season. In fact, if the Mets were able to walk away with at least three World Series wins in the lifetime of this Soto contract, there will be no doubt that this was a fantastic signing. It is extremely likely that Steve Cohen just locked up what could be the most refined, disciplined hitter of the last 20 years for the foreseeable future. When Juan Soto’s career is over, he will be remembered as a Met. With these mega contracts, there is always the fear that they will blow up in your owner’s face. Juan Soto has done all he can to prove that he is worth the money given to him. His baserunning and fielding were never going to get him paid. He could very easily turn into one of the best hitters of all time when it is all said and done. Paying attention to Soto’s first season as a member of the Mets will be extremely entertaining and fantastic for the sport of baseball.
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