Isaac Paredes hitting for the Tampa Bay Rays, CCed by Liscense 2.0
With the turn of the New Year, the beginning of the baseball season is rapidly approaching. In less than 40 days, pitchers and catchers will be reporting to their respective spring training facilities to commence the beginning of baseball season. In the meantime, the end of free agency looms large with some notable big names still yet to sign. Most of the league’s rosters are beginning to take shape, however, and it’s time to make some 2025 predictions. Here, I’ll be looking at three players that I’m expecting to improve upon their seasons from last year.
Isaac Paredes, 3B, Houston Astros, 25
Paredes has one of my favorite spray charts in the entire league. He’s one of the best in the entire league at getting balls in the air to the pull side consistently, as evident by the volume of balls hit right near the foul line. This skillset was put to great use in Tropicana in 2023 where he put up 31 home runs for the Rays despite his expected home runs being 23.8. Different parks favor different types of hitters, and Paredes’ move to the Cubs and Wrigley Field could partially explain the decrease in production in 2024. He went from a .840 OPS with 31 home runs in 2023 to a .739 OPS with 19 home runs in 2024. To put the difference in ballpark dimensions in perspective, a ball hit down into the leftfield corner in Tropicana only has to go 316 feet to clear the wall where at Wrigley it must travel 356 feet. His unique skill set that he’s shown to excel at just wasn’t a great fit for Wrigley and the Cubs. However, he will now be playing half his games at the newly named Daikin Park for the Houston Astros, and I’m expecting him to return back to his 2023 form. Like Tropicana, Daikin Park is only 315 feet to left field with the Crawford Boxes sitting high inviting right-handed sluggers to hit it their way. Very few hitters excel at pulling the ball in the air like Paredes. Even in a down year, his 51.9 pull percentage ranked 3rd in the league. Combined with his 29.3% flyball rate, Paredes is able to slug and hit for power despite his 68.2 mph bat speed, a number that is roughly 4 miles per hour slower than league average. The move seems to make a lot of sense for all parties involved, and I think Paredes is a match made in heaven for the Astros home park. I’m expecting a return to his 2023 form with significant potential for him to improve on those numbers given he’s only 25 years of age.
Brent Rooker, LF, Athletics, 30
Brent Rooker’s spray chart is a bit less extreme than Paredes’, but he still has shown a high level ability to elevate the ball to the pull side. Rooker is coming off an extremely successful 2024 campaign where he shone a bright light on an otherwise depressing last season in Oakland for the Athletics. He hit .293/.365/.562 with 39 home runs last year, quietly putting together one of the best seasons in the league. At age 30, Rooker seems to have really hit his stride this past year, and I’m expecting him to build off of that campaign into the 2025 season. The Athletics will be moving to Sacramento after playing their last season in the historic Coliseum this past year. While Rooker won’t receive the same boost in a change in dimensions as Paredes did, his fly ball percentage of 34.3 is encouraging for his ability to maintain the success from 2024 when his power metrics are taken into account. He posted an above-average bat speed of 73.7 and pulled the ball at a rate of 40.5 percent. If he can raise the pull percentage a bit, Rooker should be able to eclipse the 40 home run mark in 2025. Had he been playing for the Brewers in 2024, Statcast had him predicted at 48 home runs, so it is certainly not outside of the realm of possibilities.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers, 31
After missing the 2023 season with a knee injury and corresponding surgery, Hoskins returned in 2024 with a down year when compared to his performances in Philadelphia. He lost 30 to 50 points on his average, on base percentage, and OPS in 2024 and dropped from 30 home runs to 26 in his first year with the Brewers. Much of this decrease in production could potentially be attributed to the rehab process and recovery from the knee surgery. With another year removed, I’m optimistic that he’ll be able to return back to form in 2025. Under the hood, the metrics remained quality. His 52.6 pull percentage was tied for first in the league and he was hitting a fly ball 36.6 percent of the time. From a pure power perspective, both his average and max exit velocities were down a few ticks from 2022, though again, I’m hopeful that these numbers will return following another year of rehab and recovery. His bat speed was a touch below average at 71.2 mph this past season, but when combined with the ability to pull the ball in the air consistently, he can get away with it. If his recovery remains smooth and he’s able to get back to his 2022 exit velocities, the 31 year old could be in for a bounceback season in 2025.
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