Roki Sasaki with the Chiba Lotte Marines; CC by License 2.0
When the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to his $700 million contract in the 2023 offseason, they had their sights set on a World Series victory in 2024. The Dodgers got their wish, taking down the New York Yankees in 5 dominant games. Their lone blunder in the Fall Classic came with an exhausted bullpen trying to string together a full slate of innings on the road with Ben Casparius as their starting pitcher. It is this lack of starting pitching that had so many people, myself included, write the 2024 Dodgers off before the postseason even started. Their pitching staff, however, went on to set scoreless-inning records in the postseason with dominant performances from essentially everyone involved. The scary part is, their pitching may be getting even better in 2025.
Roki Sasaki, a 23-year-old superstar righty from Japan, has dominated his competition ever since he started pitching. When he was 19, he pitched to a 1.84 ERA in 16 starts. The baseball world last saw him perform on a big stage in 2023’s World Baseball Classic. It was recently confirmed that Sasaki would be posted by the NPB and make his MLB debut in the 2025 regular season. The consensus among baseball fans is that the Dodgers will land this talented RHP. I feel like it was generally assumed that Roki would head to LA (not the Angels) in the offseason last year, too. It is hard to deny the appeal, considering they have Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and a fresh World Series for Roki to gawk at.
Still, every team will get their crack at Roki. He is under the same signing conditions as Ohtani was because he was posted before the age of 25. This means his money will come from teams’ international signing bonuses instead of a contract like a standard free agent. This fact does make things more interesting in terms of who will sign Sasaki. Unfortunately, the Dodgers have the largest amount of money in their international signing bonus pool, so this is yet another sign pointing to Los Angeles signing him. What would his stuff look like, and how would he fit into the rotation of other starting pitchers on a new team? This article will dive into 3 potential suitors for one of the most Japanese pitching prospects and what contribution from Sasaki would mean for each of them.
But first, it is worth familiarizing oneself with Roki’s arsenal on the mound. His fastball touches 102 MPH and has the ability to generate swing and miss at a respectable clip. However, it is worth noting that an injury to his throwing arm took off some velocity, as he went from averaging 98.8 MPH in 2023 to 96.8 MPH in 2024. Scouts on MLB.com have said that, as long as there are no serious injury problems in his near future, this fastball regression should not be of concern. Sasaki, like many other pitchers out of Japan, throws a splitter. However, his is not like anyone else’s in the world. MLB’s average whiff rate on splitters was 34.5% in 2024. Sasaki’s was 57.1%. This pitch is what made Roki famous, as he regularly throws it at 90+ MPH and makes opposing hitters buckle at the plate. He also throws a slider-type of breaking ball but has been largely a two-pitch pitcher in the eyes of baseball fans.
Los Angeles Dodgers
A successful signing of Roki Sasaki by the Dodgers would send the baseball world into a type of depression, mostly because they know that this franchise has the chance to win the World Series 5+ times in the next 10 seasons. In theory, their starting rotation could look like this: Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Tyler Glasnow, and one of either Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, or Bobby Miller. The Dodgers learned firsthand last season that you can never have too much pitching. Their healthy pitching depth chart is terrifying for the rest of the league. You know there's an issue when it is hard to figure out the 4th best pitcher in a rotation of 5 people. Any one of those top 4 guys has the upside to be the ace of the staff. Plus, they may go out and sign Max Fried for the hell of it. Be on the lookout for this Dodgers team to turn into something insane in the offseason this year. They got a taste of a real World Series win for the first time since 1988, and they have no plans on slowing down.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants have turned into the apparent little brother to the Dodgers in the last few years. It is sad to say, but I can guarantee that most Dodger fans view the Padres as their bigger rivals these days over the Giants. The Giants have been active in the offseason already, but not in the player-signing market. They finally parted ways with Farhan Zaidi after years of fan outcry. They installed one Buster Posey at the head of the organization in a move that comes off as desperate for a new direction. Still, as a Giants fan, I am excited about the attempt at a fresh start without completely nuking the franchise by bringing in someone external to right the ship. Signing Roki Sasaki would represent Posey’s first huge move as the captain of this ship. The Giant's pitching staff has the potential to compete with the best rotations across the league. Their rotation would look like this: Logan Webb, Roki Sasaki, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, and Hayden Birdsong/Jordan Hicks (as long as his arm doesn’t give up in the second half again). Similar to the Dodgers, the Giants have a ton of depth for pitching. If their bullpen is able to dominate games as it did in 2023, their pitching staff would have a chance to propel them to their first playoff appearance since 2021.
Philadelphia Phillies
Sorry, American League. In this writer’s opinion, I see Sasaki ending up in the NL. The Phillies present an interesting case for signing Roki this offseason. Their consistency in the last few seasons is certainly a plus. Coming so close in 2022 and then losing the NLCS in 2023 has left Philly baseball fans wanting more. Signing Sasaki, although an unorthodox move, would be a fantastic decision for this team. It feels like the Phillies have been missing something from their starting rotation as of late. Everyone knows of the dominance of Zack Wheeler and the consistency of Aaron Nola. Outside of those guys, it is hard to name another noteworthy contributing arm. Guys like Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez provide exceptional depth as lefties, but guys like Taijuan Walker were there last season to bring everyone down a step. Signing Sasaki would create a rotation close to this: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Roki Sasaki, Ranger Suarez, and Cristopher Sanchez. This group of guys paired with the always-powerful bullpen in Philly creates depth on the mound that has been missing for them. The Phillies’ bats are always going to show up, especially in October. Adding someone like Sasaki would give Bryce Harper a fantastic shot at his first ring.
The Roki Sasaki sweepstakes will be the most important of the offseason on the pitching side. For now, all eyes are turned to Juan Soto. His decision has the chance to set a record for a contract given to an outfielder. There is a world where the Dodgers get both Soto and Sasaki. Dealing with that for the foreseeable future would absolutely spiral the baseball world into madness. Still, watch for Sasaki to impact whatever team lands him in a profound way in 2025 and beyond.