Paul Skenes pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates, CCed by Liscense 2.0
The race for the National League Rookie of the Year in the 2024 MLB season has been a treat for baseball fans to enjoy. It seems that the amount of young talent in baseball has grown in both number and the quality of these players. The type of talent that is drafted out of college, or even high school, is otherworldly, leading to quick promotions to the majors that can have a genuine impact on their teams. The top three rookies in consideration for the award are Jackson Merrill (SD), Paul Skenes (PIT) and Jackson Chourio (MIL). Each of these athletes are in their early 20s, and Chourio isn’t even able to buy a drink. Still, these guys are worth highlighting, and each of them has a solid case for winning the Rookie of the Year Award in 2024.
Jackson Merrill (-800)
This Padres rookie has been outstanding in his first 135 games played. Jackson Merrill was drafted 27th overall in 2021 out of high school. Now, as a 21-year-old, he has provided some of the most entertaining moments of the 2024 MLB season. Typing “Jackson Merrill clutch” into Twitter will get you several clips of him hitting game-tying home runs, walk-offs and bases-clearing base hits. This narrative and his actual performance has shot him ahead of the previous favorite Paul Skenes in the ROTY race.
Taking a look at the numbers, Merrill possesses an impressive 125 OPS+. Being 25% better than league average as a 21-year-old is something that not many players can say they accomplished. His .291/.323/.493 slash line is nothing to scoff at either, as it has allowed him to collect 21 home runs and 22 doubles in his 481 at bats. With the season winding down here in September, Merrill can set his sights on a 20-20 season, as he needs just four more stolen bases to reach this milestone.
Merrill’s Baseball Savant percentiles are wildly impressive, too. His best ranks land him in the 97th percentile for expected batting average, 97th in LA Sweet-Spot%, 95th in expected slugging percentage and 93rd in xwOBA. His value does not solely come from his time spent in the batter’s box, as Merrill lands in the 94th percentile for OAA, 91st in arm strength and 80th in sprint speed. It would be hard to not say that Merrill is a lock for the ROTY award this year. However, his competition proves to be potent, and the -800 favorite could end up being surprised when the award is given out.
Paul Skenes (+400)
The flamethrower out of LSU set the baseball world on fire when he was called up to make his debut with the Pirates. Paul Skenes had won the College World Series mere months before toeing the slab against the world’s best hitters. As a 22-year-old, Skenes has been setting records ever since throwing his first pitch in the majors. He recently tied the record for most strikeouts by a Pirates rookie since 1900. His impact was so widely felt that he was named to the NL All Star team and started the game for the National League. He navigated around some of MLB’s best hitters, including Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
Skenes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His 2.13 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 114 innings are more than impressive on their own. Skenes also has a 198 ERA+ while only issuing 30 walks in his first season of work. His outings have become must-see TV; not only because of his electric arsenal, but the chance to see Livvy Dunne in tow is something no one should pass on.
His percentiles tell the real story about the kind of year Skenes has been having. The expected stats often tell the truth about any player, as they reveal the amount of “luck” that factors into a player’s production on the field. Skenes has absolutely no need for good luck, as his expected ERA and expected batting average sit in the 95th and 93rd percentiles. His pitching run value is nearlyt maxed out, falling in the 99th percentile. It’s almost impossible to find any negatives on his Savant page. The only percentile that is below average is his extension, which lands in the 42nd percentile. For now, this rank seems to be irrelevant based on his other numbers.
There is a very real possibility that Skenes can still win the ROTY. The clutch-factor that Merrill has been showing off has flipped the script on the favorite, but it is not crazy to say that Skenes has had the more valuable season. In fact, Skenes has more bWAR than Merrill (5.1 vs. 3.5). Of course, we will most likely see Merrill in October, while Skenes’ Pirates will not be found in the playoffs this year.
Jackson Chourio (+2500)
It is almost impossible to see a world where Jackson Chourio comes away with the ROTY award this year. It’s also impossible for Chourio to grab a beer with his teammates after a game, which is ironic considering he plays for the Brewers. What is not impossible is to say that Chourio has a chance to be just as exciting as the two guys mentioned above. The 20-year-old Brewer has been showing off his tools in 2024. He actually showed his tools well enough in the minors that it earned him an 8-year, $82 million contract before he even stepped foot on a major-league field. However, if Chourio continues to play the way he has in 2024, this contract will end up being a steal for the Brew Crew.
In 125 games, Chourio has a 118 OPS+. While not quite the 125 mark that Merrill has, it is still noteworthy, especially considering Chourio won’t be 21 until March of 2025. The center fielder has 19 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He too is in the 20-20 race and needs just one more longball to get there. His 97th percentile ranking in sprint speed should allow Chourio to be in the 20-20 conversation for every year he plays in the MLB. His slash line of .280/.331/.470 is respectable. Again, every number listed here is insane considering Chourio’s age.
Chourio’s Savant page is noteworthy, as well. While there is more blue than the two previous players, Chourio more than makes up for that with his 92nd in expected batting average, 96th in baserunning run value, 87th in OAA and arm strength, and 88th in batting run value. While Chourio will probably not win the ROTY award this year, his production cannot be ignored by baseball fans. If he continues to develop in the way the Brewers want him to, Chourio will be a special player for years to come.
Baseball fans have been spoiled with this year’s rookies. In the NL, we have the three guys listed above, as well as names like Tyler Fitzgerald (SF) and Shota Imanaga (CHI). In the AL, we have the likes of Austin Wells (NYY), Colton Cowser (BAL) and Mason Miller (OAK) involved in the competition. As players continue to get better and better in college and high school, the pool of young talent will only continue to grow. For now, the NL ROTY race is mostly up in the air. The talent above can only receive one award, but their presence on the baseball diamond is a reward for all of baseball.
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